Climate Change

 

Climate Change – Rise of CO2

Air bubble trapped in ice enabled humans to know about the level of CO2 400,000 years ago, it was around 200 ppm. CO2 concentration in atmosphere increases seasonally in a year with lower ppm found in September and highest in May.  Since 1958, Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii Island is monitoring and collecting data of CO2 concentration in atmosphere, this site is considered best for measuring CO2 by NOAA i.e. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA because "The undisturbed air, remote location, and minimal influence of vegetation and human activity at MLO are ideal for monitoring constituents in the atmosphere that can cause climate change."  

Above graph from NASA shows concentration of CO2 nearly 800,000 years ago and it was around 185 ppm, from the graph we can see that CO2 level increases and decreases periodically but on average till pre industrial era it remain almost same and below 300 ppm. At that time CO2 emissions was naturally influenced due to activities like volcanic eruptions, forest fires, decomposition and ocean release and respiration.  Pre-Industrial level of CO2 was 280 ppm and two most important human activities responsible for emission of CO2 are Energy generated from fossil fuels and Transportation.

Global consumption of fossil fuels in energy sector started in 1800s after industry revolution initially coal, then nearly in 1860s crude consumption started in energy sector and in 1900s natural gas consumption started. In 1886 Carl Benz started commercial production of motor vehicles based on ICE and rise of CO2 started from these 2 activities.

As per data from NOAA, CO2 emissions per year started rising from 1900 when countries started their development blindly which increases energy demand, also technologies for using fossil fuels were emerging and world were extracting fossil fuels at faster rate.  In 1860 CO2 ppm was around 288 ppm i.e. 2.8% from 1750 (Industrialization started), in 1950  it was around 305 ppm i.e. in next 100 years increment was around 6 % as commercial activities were expanding.  1900 (291 ppm) – 1950 (305 ppm) CO2 concentration were increasing at the rate of 0.28 ppm per year and in next 50 years (1950 (305 ppm) - 2000(370 ppm)) rate increases to 1.3 ppm per year. In 2013, CO2 level first time crossed the 400 ppm level, last time CO2 level were this high was 3 million years ago when there were no human on earth.  In August 2020, ppm level is around 413 ppm so in 270 years (1750-2020) level increased by nearly 47.5 % i.e. 0.49 ppm per year. It is expected that till the end of century concentration will be around 900 ppm i.e. increment will be around 6 ppm per year which is a red alert for earth.

World start noticing this rise of CO2 in 1979 with First World Climate Conference (335 ppm), followed by IPCC setup in 1988 (352 ppm), Earth Summit Rio in 1992 (357 ppm), Kyoto Protocol 1997 (364 ppm), first MOP of KP in Montreal in 2005 (380 ppm) and Paris Agreement in 2015 (403 ppm). In 41 years (1979 – 2020) different summits, conferences, meetings held and many programs like clean development mechanism started under KP for capping emissions of developed countries and assisting developing countries to adopt cleaner technologies. In these 41 years CO2 level increased by 1.9 ppm per year, so there is no positive effects observed till now. May be with awareness of this rise, in future world can resist this rise. Now every country in world moving towards cleaner technologies specially in energy sector (Renewables and Hydrogen) and transportation sector (Electric Vehicles) which comprises of almost 45% of carbon emission around the world.  Policies, regulations, frameworks need to be adopted as a world whole not as nation or cluster of nations (SAARC, EU etc.).  Natural concentration of CO2 is around 200 ppm to 300 ppm; 1000 ppm of CO2 is dangerous for human health, earlier it was estimated around 2000 ppm to 5000 ppm but new research suggest that near 1000 ppm human can suffer from headache, respiratory and  kidney issues.

Earlier with emerging technologies humans increases use of fossil fuels and now with emerging technologies humans have to decrease the use of fossil fuels, many researchers says that this is now irreversible but recent lockdown shows that nature can heal itself and if human can control emissions than certainly it is reversible.